Friday, October 26, 2012

Apple's Tim Cook sees Microsoft Surface as a 'fairly compromised, confusing product'

Anyone wondering what Apple CEO Tim Cook thinks of Microsoft's new Surface tablet didn't have to wait long to get an answer. Cook offered a fairly blunt assessment of the device on the company's quarterly earnings call today, saying that while he hasn't personally played with one, "we're reading that it's a fairly compromised, confusing product." He went on to say that "I think one of the things you do with a product is make hard trade-offs. The user experience on the iPad is absolutely incredible," adding, "I suppose you could design a car that flies and floats, but I don't think it would do all of those things very well. When people look at the iPad versus competitive offerings, I think they'll continue to want an iPad."

As for Apple's own new tablet, the iPad mini, Cook dismissed the notion that it would cannibalize other iPad sales. "The way that we look at this," Cook said, "is that we provide a fantastic iPod touch, an iPad, and an iPad mini. Customers will decide which one, two, three or four they want, and they'll buy those." He went on to add that "we've learned over the years not to worry about cannibalization of our products. The far bigger opportunity is the 80 to 90 million PCs shipped each quarter. I think a great number of those people would be better off buying an iPad, or a Mac. That's a bigger opportunity for Apple. Instead of looking at cannibalization, I see an incremental opportunity."

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Apple's Tim Cook sees Microsoft Surface as a 'fairly compromised, confusing product' originally appeared on Engadget on Thu, 25 Oct 2012 17:40:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Source: http://www.engadget.com/2012/10/25/apples-tim-cook-sees-microsoft-surface-as-a-fairly-compromised/

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ZTE posts a first quarterly loss, margins bleed

HONG KONG (Reuters) - ZTE Corp, the world's fourth-biggest maker of mobile phones and fifth-ranked telecommunications equipment manufacturer, reported a $310 million quarterly net loss, its first since listing in Hong Kong in 2004, on shredded margins, project delays and accounting changes in China.

Shenzhen-based ZTE, led by Shi Lirong, had previously warned its quarterly loss could be as much as 2 billion yuan - eight times its first-half profit - triggering a 16 percent drop in its stock price on October 15, a self-imposed 50 percent pay cut by executives, and warnings from Fitch ratings agency.

In the third quarter of last year, ZTE made a profit of 299 million yuan.

"Things should move up from here, in terms of profitability and margins. We have to watch whether their telecom equipment business overseas picks up," said Michael Li, an analyst with Everbright Securities in Hong Kong.

ZTE has also faced accusations in a U.S. Congress committee report this month that it - and local rival Huawei Technologies Co Ltd - is a potential cyber security threat. Both ZTE and Huawei deny the committee's allegations.

Telecoms gear contributes about half of ZTE's total sales, while consumer devices - handsets, tablets and dongles - make up about a third. The company, which employs more than 80,000 people, generates more than half its revenues outside China.

ZTE recently sold a majority stake in ZTE Special Equipment Co (ZTEsec), a business that sells surveillance systems to governments and law enforcement agencies.

An investigation by Reuters earlier this year found that ZTE had sold to Iran's largest telecoms firm a powerful surveillance system capable of monitoring landline, mobile and internet communications. Reuters also reported that ZTE had sold or agreed to sell Iran embargoed U.S. computer equipment. The company said later it was curtailing its business in Iran and had stopped looking for new customers there.

FULL-YEAR PROFIT

Earlier this month, ZTE blamed its forecast third-quarter loss on delays in some international telecom projects and a large number of low-margin contracts in Europe and Asia, but said it expected to be profitable for the full year.

Net profit for the full year is forecast at around 642 million yuan, according to a mean forecast from a Reuters poll of 11 analysts since the company's mid-October profit warning.

"The company's fundamentals are not so strong and transparency is also a concern," said a fund manager, who was not authorized to talk to the media, so didn't want to be named.

ZTE, which competes with Ericsson, Alcatel-Lucent SA and Nokia-Siemens in providing equipment to telecom carriers, has been frustrated by project delays in the high-margin African market, while sales in Europe have slowed due to the broad debt crisis there.

CHINA MOBILE HOPES

Like many in the consumer gadget business, ZTE wants to move up the smartphone value chain with higher-end models like its Grand series, but remains way behind Samsung Electronics Co Ltd and Apple Inc in consumer recognition.

ZTE shipped 8 million smartphones in April-June and analysts said executives told them shipments would be around 25 million this year, lower than earlier targets.

Analysts say ZTE should benefit from China Mobile Ltd's expected spending next year to develop its 4G network.

ZTE shares have more than halved this year, dropping the firm's market value to below $5 billion. The benchmark Hang Seng stock index has gained almost 18 percent over the same period, while the CSI 300, made up of leading Shanghai and Shenzhen shares, is down 2 percent.

ZTE has switched to a stricter way of logging new contract revenues in its home market. It previously signed procurement contracts with carriers' provincial branches, but now also requires agreements with their head offices, increasing the time needed to seal some deals, analysts said.

(Reporting by Lee Chyen Yee; Editing by Ian Geoghegan)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/zte-posts-first-quarterly-loss-margins-bleed-092547405--finance.html

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Thursday, October 25, 2012

New York Times releases Windows 8 app for all the news that's fit to tile

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The newspaper of record announced today that it will be arriving on Windows 8 tomorrow, offering up full articles, videos, photos and blogs to subscribers. Non-subscribers, on the other hand, will just get access to the Top News section. Also new in the world of New York Times / Microsoft teamups is the arrival of a NYT channel in the Bing News app. More info on both after the break.

Continue reading New York Times releases Windows 8 app for all the news that's fit to tile

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New York Times releases Windows 8 app for all the news that's fit to tile originally appeared on Engadget on Thu, 25 Oct 2012 14:52:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Source: http://www.engadget.com/2012/10/25/new-york-times-releases-windows-8-app-for-all-the-news-thats-fi/

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Katie Price Splits From Fiance Leandro Penna

Katie Price Splits From Fiance Leandro Penna

Katie Price, who also goes by the name of Jordan, has split from her fiance Leandro Penna. The 34-year-old model and reality star, who became [...]

Katie Price Splits From Fiance Leandro Penna Stupid Celebrities Gossip Stupid Celebrities Gossip News

Source: http://stupidcelebrities.net/2012/10/katie-price-splits-from-fiance-leandro-penna/

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Mountain Bike Use on the Canyon Trail - SCV News

The following interview was conducted Oct. 16, 2012, at the Placerita Canyon Nature Center. On Oct. 3, 2012, the Los Angeles County Department of Parks and Recreation decided to open the Canyon Trail to mountain bikes effective March 2013. The county?s final trail assessment can be read [here].

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PARTICIPANTS:

Hayden Sohm, Deputy Director, Los Angeles County Department of Parks and Recreation

Hayden Sohm is in charge of all of Los Angeles County?s regional parks, which include: Frank G. Bonelli Regional Park, Castaic Lake State Recreation Area, Devil?s Punchbowl, Kenneth Hahn State Recreation Area, William S. Hart Regional Park, Peter F. Schabarum Regional Park, Vasquez Rocks, all Natural Areas and Wildlife Sanctuaries,?the John Anson Ford Amphitheatre, and the Hollywood Bowl.

Steve Messer, Director, Concerned Off-Road Bicyclists Association (CORBA)

Jim Southwell, President, Placerita Canyon Nature Center Associates

Ron Kraus, Vice President, Placerita Canyon Nature Center Associates

(Interviewer) Leon Worden, President, SCVTV

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Sohm: We just finished meeting with the docents and volunteers here.

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Worden: What?s been the upshot so far?

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Sohm: I think it?s been positive. ? Probably the biggest concern was on the part of the volunteers, the stakeholders here ? the background; why was this decision made? What was it based on? How did that process, how did we eventually arrive at that final decision? So I kind of explained that to them.

I think there?s a continuing concern about safety on the trail and how that?s going to be handled. I think there?s a concern about if there are conflicts or legitimate incidents on the trail, how are those going to be reported? Things like that. I think from the perspective of the existing trail users, I think there?s a real concern about, in terms of the overall trail experience, how it may be changed and, I think, from their view, a little bit degraded.

But you know, from my perspective, I think one of the things that I?ve shared with the group is: As a recreational manager, I have a responsibility to look at the constituency as a whole and the various aspects in terms of recreational need within an area. And I feel that?this is a public trail, and if there are compelling reasons that would allow another user group to use this trail ? and when I say compelling reasons, that would be that it wouldn?t jeopardize the safety of other trail users; that it wouldn?t impact resources; that it wouldn?t impact the sustainability of the trail ? then I would probably go with the decision to allow multiple use on that trial. That?s what our assessment really ? that?s what we found out when we did the assessment.

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Worden: I?m assuming there is a definition of ?natural area.? When we look at Castaic -

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Sohm: Well there isn?t.

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Worden: ? look at Castaic Lake, it says ?recreation area? ?

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Sohm: Right.

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Worden: All the signs in here say, ?Placerita Canyon Natural Area.? What does that mean?

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Sohm: We talked about that, and in terms of a codified definition of a ?natural area? in the county parks system, there is no document that ? in terms of an ordinance or a code ? that actually defines what a natural area is. We have narratives. We have opinions. But there?s nothing there.

But what does exist, and really what applies in this case, is the classification of ?state park.? Because this is a state park. And that is codified under the Public Resources Code. And a state park, which Placerita Canyon is ? the county actually operates Placerita Canyon for the state; we have an operating agreement with the state to operate this unit, and it is a state park ? and a state park classification, which this is, does allow for this kind of use.

Now, that?s not to say just because it?s a state park it automatically means that mountain bikes can be in a state park. But what it does say is that mountain bikes may not necessarily be excluded.

For example, Malibu Creek State Park allows mountain bikes. Point Mugu State Park allows mountain bikes. Mountain bikes are allowed in many state park units. But what it does require is some sort of assessment. If that trail was closed to mountain bike use, there needs to be some sort of assessment to determine whether it?s feasible to allow that to occur.

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Worden: Having read the operating agreement, if I could paraphrase ? I suppose it?s safe to say that the county can be more restrictive than the state, but it can?t be less restrictive than the state.

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Sohm: Well that?s your opinion.

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Worden: OK -

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Sohm: I?m not an attorney. I think you know my perspective on that is that we try to ? I think you?re right, in that certainly if we wanted to, we could apply additional constraints or restrictions for various number of reasons if we wanted to. That?s something we could do. But I think what I?m saying here is, as it relates to multi-use on these trails, we try to follow what we felt was a rational, scientific approach that was more than just something by fiat.

I mean, what we had before this time was really just a decree from an administrator that said mountain bikes weren?t allowed on the trail, and that was it. In fact I can show it to you. ? This right here is the document. This was a document that was prepared by Mickey Long, who was the administrator for the natural areas. You may know Mickey. Great person. And this was prepared for staff. This was not a public document. If you go to the second page under general regulations -

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Worden: Around what year was this?

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Sohm: [To staff] Help me out here. 2001. You can see right here, Protection Clause for Natural Areas ?do not allow? ? and there is a number of things here, and you can see that at the end, there is a provision dealing with mountain bikes.

That is the only thing that we have that in any way, at least in writing, prevented ? this is the basis for the current policy that was in place.

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Worden: To your knowledge there hasn?t been any Board [of Supervisors] action defining what a natural area is?

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Sohm: To my knowledge, no.

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Worden: In practice ? I mean, we have the words ?natural area? and we have the words ?recreation area.? If? there?s not a policy to define those things other than the administrative action, how are they interpreted in practice? How are they differentiated in practice?

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Sohm: I think it boils down to resource protection and the nature of the unit.

I think it?s very obvious what we have here ? this is an area that?s relatively undeveloped, that probably 95 percent of the land here would be considered habitat. It?s an area that has been designated administratively as a natural area, and I think from the county perspective, we regard those as special places. And when I say that ? if you were comparing it to, say, one of our neighborhood parks in Santa Clarita where there are playgrounds, sandboxes, baseball fields, things like that, you wouldn?t find those kind of features in a park like this.

It?s a regional park, so it?s not a very locally used park in terms ? when I say that it?s not a neighborhood park, it is a regional park. It?s been designed as destination for a geographic region. Those are the things that are out there.

What you?re talking about is something I think we need. I think we need to really look at our park classifications and maybe codify those and define those a little bit more, because they are kind of nebulous. They are a little general and arbitrary.

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Worden: Do you think there?s confusion on the part of the public about what a natural area is?

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Sohm: I don?t think so.

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Worden: ? or in what uses would be allowed? It almost seems like a common sense issue that you wouldn?t necessarily have OHV use in Placerita because it?s a natural area.

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Sohm: And you wouldn?t. But you wouldn?t have OHV use here because it?s a state park. Also because within the state system and that classification, they don?t allow mechanized vehicles on a trail.

There is one exception to that: If you have a disability, there?s current law that provides for people with disability that can use an alternative mobility device which can be mechanized. That?s the only situation where we would allow that.

I think what you?re getting at is within the state, there are classifications of ?wilderness? and ?preserve.? For example, Point Lobos is a preserve, and ? there?s a very high level of protection there. No dogs are allowed in that park. No bikes are allowed in that park. They don?t even allow commercial filming in those parks. That?s their highest level, and I think maybe some people feel that quote, a ?natural area? should be compared with maybe that level of resource protection. And like I say, there?s nothing that we have within the county system that ultimately defines what that level of protection could be other than the fact that we typically manage a natural park or natural area to primarily protect the resources, cultural or natural. So we aren?t going to allow ball fields in here, we?re not going to allow kids to play soccer, we?re not going to allow motorcycles on the trails, that sort of thing.

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Worden: It?s fascinating to me that those aren?t defined. I think of Castaic ? obviously you can fish on Castaic Lake.

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Sohm: Right.

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Worden: Mountain biking is a sport. Are we in agreement there? Mountain biking is a sport, right?

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Messer: [Indicates that in certain circumstances it can be considered a sport.]

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Worden: It can be considered a sport. I like sportfishing. Am I going to be able to fish in Placerita Creek, if there were anything other than stickleback in there? I can fish in Castaic, so why wouldn?t I have an expectation that I can take a rod and reel, and even if I don?t catch anything, go fish [here]?

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Sohm: I don?t know if this creek is closed. It would be [the California Department of] Fish & Game?s call. See, in that case ? it wouldn?t be Fish & Game?s call, it would be the state to determine whether it was closed or open to fishing. Many of the coastal streams and creeks -

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Worden: County could [close it to fishing], though.

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Sohm: No, they can?t. That?s typically ? when it comes to management of species, animals, typically the state trumps county on that. They have the responsibility for managing those resources, and we typically fall in line with Fish & Game in terms of that. We adhere to the Fish & Game code here, and regulations.

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Worden: I understand there was a process by which you determined that mountain bikes should be allowed on the Canyon Trail.

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Sohm: Right.

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Worden: We?ve all been at this long enough to know that you ? I?m not saying predetermined ? that you design a study or survey to reach an outcome after a question is posed.

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Sohm: Backing into it? A self-fulfilling prophecy?

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Worden: No. That?s not what I?m saying. [I?m asking] about the question. You could do a study to determine whether Placerita should remain a park or be sold to developers.

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Sohm: OK-

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Worden: But that would presuppose that somebody, somewhere is open to the question. The decision would have been made that maybe it should be a park, maybe it shouldn?t. So at some point, in asking whether mountain bikes should be allowed on the Canyon Trail, somebody made the decision that maybe they should, maybe they shouldn?t. What went into that decision [to ask the question]?

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Sohm: Oh, I can tell you absolutely. It was a call that I made.

Obviously the director supported it, but I think the real issue here was that other than this, we had nothing to justify that decision [to close the trail to mountain bikes], and we knew we would get challenged.

And I can just imagine myself in court responding to an attorney, and him asking me, ?Well, Mr. Sohm, what was the basis of this policy?? And if I pointed to this [administrative action], I think it would be hard to prove our case. We needed more, and that?s exactly why we did what we did.

Other than an opinion from one person that mountain bikes weren?t appropriate to be used in this park, that?s all we had. Simple as that. And we needed more.

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Worden: How is it that the fear of a lawsuit entered into the equation?

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Sohm: As a manager, I feel that I?m responsible to come up with a reasonable, even to constituency ? it?s not so much a fear of a lawsuit, it?s the idea that I?ve got a constituency that?s asking me, well what?s the basis for this decision? Why would we do this? And for me to say, well, the last manager thought it was best for the park, so that?s what we?re doing ? that?s unacceptable to me.

I felt that we needed to do something to go beyond that, and that?s why we did what we did. As a manager, I think that?s the appropriate thing to do. You need to base your decisions and your policy on some solid data, some information that you could point to and say that?s why we did it. That?s all we did. That?s why we did what we did.

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Worden: To your knowledge, except for this one small window [in time] where apparently an error was made in the signage [allowing mountain bike use] ? I was at the dedication in 1971 of this park, and I don?t recall it being anything other than a hiking trail in the last 40 years. To your knowledge, over the last 40 years, except for that one small window of time, has it ever been anything other than a hiking trail?

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Sohm: I think there?s been sporadic bike use on that.

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Worden: [To Jim Southwell] Do you know, Jim?

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Southwell: It?s been illegally used by bikers sporadically, on and off. There used to be a very, very large sign at the top of the Los Pinetos trail, right where it changes from being the county park border to the forestry area up there. There?s a big sign and it said, no motorized vehicles, no bicycles, hiking only. And then they have a couple of steel poles which were wrapped in tape, and they again said no motorcycles, no bicycles. That sign eventually was knocked down, and every time we go up there, we would try to prop it back up again, and eventually [one] day it just disappeared. I don?t know whether it got pulled over the side or anything, but whenever we stopped mountain bikers coming down that trail saying, ?Hey, you?re not allowed down there,? they said, ?I didn?t see any sign.?

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Worden: What piqued my interest in this issue ? the reason we?re here today ? is that I had some questions I was trying to pose to the supervisor?s office. For the last 40 years, county policy has been that this has been a hiking trail, [and thus], the preservation of all the plants and animals and everything along the trail has been a very important thing.

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Sohm: And it still is.

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Worden: The county has fostered this docent group whose members obviously care very deeply about all those plants and animals and everything on the trail. What got me interested is the degree of angst they felt in reaction to the decision to allow mountain bikes on the trail. I got to thinking: The county has basically spent the last 40 years encouraging these people to care very deeply about all the plants and animals on the trail, and now a lot of them ? who know a lot more about the plants and animals than I ever will ? feel that by allowing this recreational/sporting use, the mountain bikes, on the trail, that those plants and animals may be threatened. So my question is: What do you say to these people? Should they not care so much? If we?re now going to allow a use that they perceive [to be damaging], are we saying OK, thanks for the last 40 years, but maybe you should take a step back and we?re going to do something different now?

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Sohm: I guess I don?t know how to answer that because I think you?re kind of front-loading that question with a lot of bias.? I mean, you?re drawing a conclusion that mountain biking is automatically going to jeopardize resources on that trail. I don?t buy in to that.

We?ve met with the docents, we?ve met with the key leadership within the group, and they are becoming a part of this process. I mean, I?ve got Ron [Kraus], I?ve got Ray [Orloff], I?ve got people that are leadership members of this group that are working with the mountain bike community to identify resources, to survey the trail to make sure that we have some baseline information that we can go with.

You know, the other thing is, you?re kind of talking like were jumbling into a brave new world. This is something that?s been going on all over the country, and I don?t necessarily ? I certainly haven?t heard about any significant resource degradation directly related to mountain biking. I?m sure there are probably cases where it may occur, but in most cases it?s probably due to lack of maintenance? more than anything.

Our role is to manage this trail and prevent resource degradation from occurring, and that?s the message that I?ve had for the docents. I?m a very big advocate of resource protection, be it cultural or natural. And we certainly recognize that that trail has some significant resources that need to be protected. That will be one of our guiding principles.

The other thing that I will tell you ? and this goes for a lot of the criteria that we?ll be looking at, be it public safety, be it resource impact ? we?re going to continue to monitor this. And you know, if it turns out that it?s not working out, we?ll revisit this.

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Worden: Let me explain why I?m asking it this way. I thought the question was put in an interesting way by a member of the docent group who said, you know, look. We?ve contributed thousands of hours and thousands of dollars to this park over the last many years. And clearly the docents have a deep, vested interest?in this specific park ? not just any park, but this specific park. Their question was: Why does that not carry more weight, over a group that is interested in being able to bike in parks in general but doesn?t necessarily have that same vested interest in this one specific park? Having given so much to this specific park, why doesn?t that carry more weight in the decision? That?s the question. How do you answer that?? That?s why I ask.

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Sohm: OK, and we have certainly visited that question with the group. I want to make it clear that we certainly acknowledge the contributions and the work that the docents and the NCA, the Nature Center Associates, have done for Placerita and all our natural areas. I certainly feel like we have ratcheted up our response to that group and how we?re dealing with this thing as it relates to them. I guess I look at that and in terms of volunteer service and contributions [it] is certainly something that we acknowledge.

But again, in terms of where I?m coming from as an employee that is responsible for managing public land, you know, we also need to look at the stake that other taxpayers and other recreational users have in terms of a right to use these public lands.?I think there?s ? I don?t see how you can ? there?s no hierarchy there. It?s just that I think we certainly recognize the contributions that this group has had, and we?ve tried to listen to their concerns, and were trying to mitigate their concerns here.

But I think in terms of the decision-making process and the management of the trail, we?re obligated to all the public. I don?t think it would be appropriate to discriminate over one group, absolutely not. And I think that?there?s no way to really establish a hierarchy in terms of who?s more important.

When you?re managing public lands, you need to look at all the groups, and you need to make decisions based on what you think [is] sound information.

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Worden: You said you hadn?t seen demonstrative evidence that mountain bikes damage resources. If [docents] came forward with such evidence, how would that be treated?

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Sohm: We talked about that, and like I mentioned before ? this is a process. We?re committed to looking at this process and monitoring how it works [and] what the outcomes are in Placerita.

Like I said, we?re going to be looking at public safety information, and if we?re getting an inordinate amount of complaints or conflicts or actual injury on the trail [that] could be attributed to conflicts between bikers and hikers or whatever, we?re going to deal with that. If we?re getting and inordinate amount of resource damage reports, we?ll come back and we?ll look at what?s going on here. I?m confident that we?re going to be able to work this thing and manage it so we won?t have those kinds of conflicts.

But I?ve told these people in our public meetings that we?ve actually implemented a specific process?to monitor conflicts on the trail. Staff is going to be developing ? a report that the docents will have. We?ll also have an online process where somebody wants to ? say you?re out on the trail and you run into a problem. You can go online. We?ve got ? it?s called ?Grade Your Park.? There?s an online report card. There?s actually a category for safety. ? You can log in and grade the park. You can give it a D or an F; if one of those happens, it goes automatically to my iPhone and my directors will get it, and we?re required to deal with those.

In fact, on a monthly basis I have to do a report for all these D?s and F?s that I get.

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Worden: What are the specific rules for mountain bikes going to be? Is there a speed limit or something? And how will it be policed?

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Sohm: There are specific rules. If you?ll bear with me for a second ? I?ve got the luxury of having a sign shop, so we?re going to be able to develop some good, specific signage, and we would probably be incorporating some of this information. You know, there?s the universal trail triangle; I think you?ve probably seen it?

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Worden: Bikes give way to everybody, right?

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Sohm: Right. And ? I know that that is an issue ? that one of the things that the docents were telling me is that they have yet to experience a bike really yielding right of way . I think Steve was mentioning that one of the issues was coming up from behind, and coming up with a way to deal with that.

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Worden: I?d imagine it would spook the horses, too.

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Sohm: Yeah. But we?re working with CORBA [Concerned Off-Road Bicyclists Association]; we?re working with the local bike group here in Santa Clarita. We?re going to really emphasize education.? I mean, for us ? I?m not a peace officer. I don?t have enforcement ability. So in terms of what we?re going to do as an organization, we?re going to focus on peer pressure. We?re going to focus on education. We?re going to try to get the word out. We?re going to make it clear that if incidents occur, we?re jeopardizing the privilege of using the trail. We?re bound to be talking about that.

Now on the enforcement end, as far as actual enforcement, the Parks Department has what is called a Parks Bureau that is a part of the Los Angeles County Sheriff?s Department. They are in the loop, and we?ve served notice to them that we?re going to want some focused enforcement down here.

The trail isn?t opened [to mountain bikes] yet, and we?re already getting bikes on the trail. I?ve let them know that they need to be active. They need to be out here showing a presence, [actively] informing bikers that this is not appropriate. They?re not even supposed to be on the trail.

Those are the things that we?re going to try to do in terms of dealing with this. Like I say ? interpretive signage, I think peer pressure, education. We?re going to have the docents out on the trails; hopefully they?ll be able to convey concerns if things are coming up. That?s going to be our approach. You know, Steve, I don?t know if you want to weigh in on that?

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Messer: From CORBA?s point of view, we have monthly classes where we teach new riders how to behave on the trails. That?s an ongoing effort that we?ve been doing for 20-plus years. Obviously we can?t reach everybody, so it?s a matter of getting responsible users out on the trail, because responsible users will help solve ? police their own user group.

So if we have a trail closed to bikes, we wind up with road people coming by who aren?t going to obey any of the rules. But if you get the responsible riders out there, they?ll be able to help educate everyone else that?s coming through as the same user group.

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Worden: What?s the first line of defense for docents ? or neighborhood folks, or whoever?s hiking on the trail ? if they have a problem, if they have an altercation, if somebody tells them off? Do they call the sheriff? Do they call the Nature Center?

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Sohm: It depends on the nature of the incident or the conflict. Obviously, if a bike plows into a hiker, I think 9-1-1 is an order. They need to immediately notify emergency response so they can deal with that.

?

Messer: One thing I want to speak to is that there?s a difference between an accident and perceived conflict and actual conflict, and that?s a very subjective thing for a lot of people. What someone might consider a conflict might just be someone not being courteous. If it didn?t actually put anyone in danger, it didn?t really affect anyone other than someone who didn?t like this other group being there and didn?t feel like they were given the respect that they should be given as fellow trail users. So the difference between an accident, perceived conflict and actual conflict is, as I said, a gray area, and it?s different for everyone.

?

Sohm: We?ve talked with staff in terms of where they should come, they should come here, where staff is prepared to respond to those kinds of issues ? they can mobilize a sheriff if we need to get out there and deal with something ? but those are the avenues that are available to them. Staff here is going to be sensitive, obviously, to this issue.

I think it?s pretty fair to say that staff understands what?s at stake here, and they obviously want to make this thing work. But they are going to be concerned, and they?re going to be representing the interests of all trail users here. So they will be the first line of communication, or defense, as you mentioned. But the sheriffs would also be there as a fallback, because those are what we have.

We don?t have rangers or peace officers or powers of arrest or anything like that; we?ve got to use verbal judo and deal with people in terms of education and-

?

Worden: Not like the [Santa Monica Mountains] Conservancy does [have rangers with powers of arrest].

?

Sohm: Exactly. We?re not at that level of enforcement yet.

?

Worden: Is there a scheduled reassessment, or are you planning to go forward with this and see what happens?

?

Sohm: Well, right now, the plan is to open the trail in March, and we?re going to assess it for the upcoming year, and we?re going to be looking at it. Everybody?s aware of what?s going on, and they?re certainly alert about it. So I?m sure we?re going to be getting plenty of information ? I anticipate coming from both sides, pro and con, and we?re going to be looking at that.

?

Worden: If I could go back one thing ? was there a lawsuit, or the threat of a lawsuit?

?

Sohm: Not that I?m aware of. Nobody said, ?We?re going to sue you.? Like I said, my position on this thing was that other than that statement that I showed you, we really had nothing to base a decision on, and [it was] hard for me to articulate, for someone who was advocating for this change, exactly what the basis was for making that judgment or that policy, because we didn?t really have much to go on.

?

Worden: Was there ever a thought of taking this to the supervisors for direction?

?

Sohm: We did. Absolutely.

?

Worden: What was that direction?

?

Sohm: Well, technically I work through the [supervisor?s] park deputy. I don?t deal directly with a supervisor. We briefed her on exactly what we we?re doing ? as soon as we had the initial consultation with the local bike group, to let her know what was going on with that, and then when we devised our approach to this problem, we fully briefed her on that, and they bought off on [it]. I have to do that, because we need to keep them informed. And I work with Rosalind Wayman, Dave Perry, Sussy Nemer; those were the people whom we kept in the loop.

?

Worden: You?ve certainly answered my questions [and enlightened me about] a number of things, especially about the definition ? or lack thereof ? of a natural area. That?s surprising to me.

?

Sohm: That?s something we need to do. Like I said, I think that if you look in the state ? there?s actual different definitions of the different parks: state park, wilderness preserve, there?s a state recreation area like Castaic; those are all clearly defined in the Public Resources Code.

?

Messer: I could speak to that a little bit, too. I mean, one of the things with trails in state parks is that they?re there not as attractions in themselves. The trails are there in order to access and enjoy the resource by anyone who has the right to be there. So if the state decides that a trail is safe enough and suitable enough for bikes through an objective process ? and that?s the same process that the county has used for this place as a state park ? then there?s no reason why people can?t enjoy the resource and use the trail on a bicycle.

That?s a big distinction. We hear a lot of people thinking that the people in big helmets and on big bikes that look like motorcycles are going to come screaming down the trail at high speeds. That?s not the mission of a state park, but it is the mission of a recreation area.

?

Worden: Does anyone else have anything to add to that?

?

Kraus: One of the arguments we had against having mountain bikes on the trail was that the trail is not just a link from A to B. It?s an interpretive trail and it?s used by our docents. We [educate] 10,000 kids a year through our docent programs. It?s an interpretive trail, and interpretation is done on the trail.

For example, if we stop on the trail and we see coyote scat, we stop on the trail and we talk about it. So it?s not just a link between the Los Pinetos trail and points this way. That?s one of the arguments we made, and we?ve discussed it, and I think we?re satisfied with the explanation that the county came up with. But that was one of our big arguments. This is an interpretive trail, and it?s not just a link.

?

Worden: What kind of confidence do you have that this will all work out?

?

Kraus: Well, you know, hope. We?re having some meetings with the local groups, and we hope to work with CORBA to make them understand what interpretive work is like, what we do on the trail, and we want you [Steve] to come out with us to learn how we do interpretive work ? I?m sure a lot of the mountain bikers have kids and families who use our trails and our programs ? to show how our programs work, and just sensitivity to what we do.

If we have a group that?s stopped in the middle of the trail, we would hope a mountain bike would stop and let us do our program, or walk around us, and not just say please move off to the side. I think that?s something we can work out.

?

Worden: Does each of you have plans to work together and [come to an understanding]?

?

Messer: Yes, absolutely. CORBA has a program called Youth Adventures, where we take inner-city kids out and we put them in nature and we do an interpretive bike ride with them. We do those out in Paramount Ranch in the Santa Monica Mountains, for more than 20 years. So we do have some experience with that, and we definitely appreciate where the docents are coming from.

That?s why one of the programs that?s going to be implemented is a walk zone, where bikes will be required to dismount ? and horses, too, I understand ? where a lot of the interpretive material is given out to the kids.

?

Worden: Are you happy with the trail improvements that are going to be made ? the pinch points, etc.?

?

Messer: Yes. The pinch points have been something that the International Association of Mountain Bikes ? of which we?re the local chapter ? came up with many years ago as a way to control speed. And safety is usually as much an issue as trail design. You can design safety into a trail, and pinch points are one tool that we have to slow bicycles down before a blind turn so they?re going slower as they come around the corner. That way there?s less of a surprise to people coming [from] the other direction. So safety can be designed into a trail, and that?s something state parks are doing across the board. It?s part of their trails manual now.

?

Worden: Do you have any remaining concerns, Ron, about the improvements to the trail?

?

Kraus: Yes, we do. In fact, we?re going to walk the trail on Monday with Dwight, the county construction supervisor. We?ve had a chance to look at the plans, and we?ve got some concerns. Nothing serious, just some questions.

One part I wanted to get to were the plants and the animals here. One of the points that we brought up at our meeting this afternoon is that there really hasn?t been a sufficient natural resource assessment done of Placerita, or any of the county nature centers. So we?re going to try to look at avenues to accomplish that. At Placerita, they?ve applied for a grant for some bridges up the canyon here. Part of that process, a full CEQA environmental assessment will be required.

I guess my problem with the whole thing is that we don?t know what we don?t know. We know that there are some species of special concern here at Placerita Canyon. Our former supervisor has pointed some out; I?ve seen, documented, and GPS?d the locations of some of them. We have the spotted owl, the coast patch-nosed snake, we have the legless lizard.

This is all geeky, nature, tree-hugger stuff, but I mean, it?s a concern. A lot of these species have been what they call ?extirpated,? in other words, because of use, [they?ve] been eliminated from the other county nature centers. One of the former people we had, Mickey Long, former superintendent of the natural areas, he had mentioned some of these species that had been extirpated from Eaton Canyon, and we certainly don?t want that to happen here as the city of Santa Clarita develops.

You look at Google Earth and you look at Placerita, and it?s surrounded by civilization: Sand Canyon, Santa Clarita, the Golden Valley Ranch that will be developed soon on the other side of the hill here, and the San Fernando Valley. We?re getting pinched in here, and we really need to know what we have here. I think the county has made a commitment with us to work with us on that.

Source: http://scvnews.com/2012/10/24/qa-mountain-bike-use-on-the-canyon-trail-at-placerita-canyon-natural-area-transcript/

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Sharp announces first TVs with Moth-Eye technology: the AQUOS XL series

Sharp announces first TVs with Moth-Eye technology: the AQUOS XL series

Sharp may look like it's in trouble, but that's not stopping it bringing new displays to the market, including today's announcement of the AQUOS Quattron 3D XL TV line. Behind the mouthful of acronyms, these LED-backlit LCD panels are the first to feature Sharp's Moth-Eye technology, designed to reduce glare and pump out bright colors, as well as a deep black. The company's 'four primary color' tech is partly responsible for the rich output, which squeezes a yellow sub-pixel in with the standard R, G and B. All the panels run at 1,920 x 1,080, as you'd expect, sport a 10 million to 1 contrast ratio and use five speakers to deliver audio. Prices aren't fixed, but the 46-, 52- and 80-inch models will be released in Japan on December 15th, while the 60- and 70-inch variants will come slightly earlier, on November 30th. You're going to have to be quick on launch day, though -- only 10,000 units are expected to be available in the first month.

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Source: http://feeds.engadget.com/~r/weblogsinc/engadget/~3/JAtsstJfYNw/

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AngloGold says to fire 12,000 S.Africa strikers

JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - AngloGold Ashanti said it will sack 12,000 South African wildcat strikers who ignored a deadline to return to work on Wednesday, the latest company to resort to mass firings after weeks of crippling labour unrest.

Several mining firms have told strikers to return to work or lose their jobs in a last-ditch move to resolve the widening strikes that have poisoned labour relations and marred the image of Africa's top economy.

AngloGold, the world's third-largest bullion producer, had given strikers until noon (1000 GMT) on Wednesday to return. About 12,000 employees at its West Wits operation failed to return, spokesman Alan Fine said.

"The deadline has now passed and that means the process of issuing dismissals would begin now," he told Reuters.

About 24,000 AngloGold employees at the West Wits and Vaal River complexes - the majority of its workforce - had gone on strike. Fine said that workers at the Vaal River complex were back at work.

A total of about 100,000 workers have downed tools for better pay in South Africa since August, a wave of strikes that has sparked two credit downgrades for the country as a whole.

Coal miner South African Coal Mining Holdings said earlier on Wednesday that some of its operations had been interrupted due to a new union-led strike over wages.

AngloGold rival Harmony Gold has also given wildcat strikers an ultimatum to return to work on Thursday.

Anglogold is the latest case where the hardball tactic has failed to get substantial numbers of strikers back to work.

Gold Fields, the world's fourth-largest bullion producer, sacked 8,500 wildcat strikers at its KDC East mine on Tuesday after they ignored an ultimatum. Anglo American Platinum (Amplats), the world's largest platinum producer, also sacked 12,000 at its Rustenburg operations earlier this month.

Anglo American said last week that it would now be delaying the dismissal process at its Union and Amandelbult operations, where it employs 20,500 people. It also said it was open to discussing the reinstatement of the sacked workers with unions.

Shares of AngloGold Ashanti were flat at 285 rand.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/anglogold-says-fire-12-000-africa-strikers-110047813--finance.html

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You From The Planet ? The Most Crucial Home Remodeling ...

You will find actions to take to improve your home that do not demand any distinct expertise. Utilize the subsequent redesigning assistance to understand what measure of commitment you?ll need to give before starting a project.

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In summary, renovations do not possess being one of those conditions the place you nibble away from more than you are able to chew your ambitions can be achieved. Keeping a wide open thoughts are crucial when coming up with these improvements. This article above was published with beneficial tips which you can use to enhance your house. By simply following these tips, it will be easy to improve your house right away!

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Source: http://www.defaulttricks.com/you-from-the-planet-the-most-crucial-home-remodeling-recommendations-available/

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Monday, October 22, 2012

pot roast, the ultimate comfort food, a family favorite.


There are two smells that will always remind me of my mama. The first is the smell of pine sol. Ask any of my cousins, I think we all think of the house I grew up in when we small that! The other is pot roast. For me it's the ultimate comfort food because there was nothing I loved more growing up than walking in the door and smelling that mom had put a roast in the oven. It's so funny because if you've never made a roast it seems a little intimidating but truly there isn't much that is easier to prepare! It was the third thing my mom taught us to make. The first was how to heat up campbell's soup, the second was kraft mac n cheese, and the third was pot roast. See! That's not so intimidating now is it? :) And what's fabulous is that it's a one pot meal so dinner is done and out of the way with only 1 pot to clean up after dinner! It's such a cozy thing to make in the winter! Discovering the flavor of adding fresh rosemary, red wine, and fresh thyme to the roast rocked my world and took this home cooked meal from ordinary to extraordinary!

For the roast you will need:

1 chuck roast. I truly never worry about the size. I've just always bought the one I can afford.
1 large bunch of carrots cut into large chunks
Your favorite type of potatoes cut into chunks (I used red this time)
1 large onion cut into large chunks
3-5 cloves of garlic depending on taste- just place in whole.
2/3- 3/4 cup red wine
2/3- 3/4 cup beef broth
1 fresh sprig of rosemary
2 fresh sprigs of thyme
freshly ground pepper and salt to taste

Place your roast into your roasting pan. (my mom just always used a 3x5 cake pan)
Salt and pepper your meat. Place the carrots, potatoes, onion, and garlic around your meat. Pour the wine and beef broth over the top. Place the rosemary and thyme on top of your meat. Cover with a lid or foil.

Cook at 325 degrees for 4 hours.

That's it! It doesn't get much easier than that!!

Enjoy!!
Pin It

Source: http://keepitsimplekeepitfresh.blogspot.com/2012/10/pot-roast-ultimate-comfort-food-family.html

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Enjoy the donut, not the hole. - Holistic Health - Medicine Blog ...


?I personally believe we developed language because of our deep inner need to complain. ? ~Jane Wagner

Complaining?we all do it. Sometimes we do it a lot. Mostly we don?t recognize just how much we do it.? Personally I sometimes think that complaining is sort of like anger, but without real enthusiasm.

We complain about the weather (as if we could change it), we whine about the price of gas, we grumble about our bosses, other drivers, shoddy workmanship, poor service.? If you can name it, we complain about it.

A number of years ago while a presenter at a weekend wellness retreat, one of the other organizers offered all of us a challenge : Would we, could we, go without complaining for our time together?

For her model, she followed a program outlined in the book ?Complaint Free World? by Will Bowen.? The practice began with wearing a purple rubber bracelet on your wrist.? Simple enough.? Each time we caught ourselves complaining we were to switch the bracelet to the opposite wrist.? Oh yes, if we noticed someone else complaining, we were to point it out to them so they could move their bracelet.? And yes too, if we complained that THEY were complaining, WE had to move our bracelets as well.

And how exactly did Bowen define complaining?? He said it was ?expressing discontent, pain or grief with the way things are?.

The practice also included? criticizing or gossiping.

In Bowen?s book, he would have us follow the program for 21 days, restarting the clock each time we found ourselves needing to ?switch wrists?.

If you find yourself wondering what?s so bad about complaining you first need to take a step back and recognize the power that words have to shape the reality we experience.? When we change the words we use, we can also change the way we think and act.? This is an amazing concept I know, but just consider the following statements:

  • ?My life is so up in the air right now, so unsettled.?
  • ?My life is changing and full of possibilities.?

It?s pretty obvious which statement feels more positive, more ?in charge? of life as it?s happening,? less reactive, more proactive.

Bowen reminds us that complaining, can become a habitual practice and lead to ?focusing on what we don?t want?.? In doing so we direct more energy and more attention to the negative than the positive.

When it comes to making changes which make life better, dissatisfaction is an necessary first step.? But if we stay there, says Bowen, ?we never move forward to brighter vistas. Were the great leaders of the United States also great complainers? I?d have to say no. These important men and women allowed dissatisfaction to drive them to great visions, and their passion for these visions inspired others to follow them.?

In dialing down the quantity of our complaint factory output, we go through stages:

All ideas have power, and this one certainly does.? More than 10 million ?Complaint Free? bracelets have been delivered to folks in over 106 countries. Here?s the link for the ?Complaint Free World? site, and a link to purchase your very own purple bracelets for a buck each.? What?s to complain about that?

Peace- Judi England, RN, LMT, Kripalu Yoga Instructor ? yogajudi@aol.com ? 10/22/2012

Source: http://blog.timesunion.com/holistichealth/enjoy-the-donut-not-the-hole/10146/

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Sunday, October 21, 2012

#10: Sony HDR-AS10 Wearable Action Camera Pack 1 Includes a ...

Sony HDR-AS10 Wearable Action Camera Pack 1 Includes a Sony HDR-AS10 1080p High Definition Wearable Helmet Action Camcorder with Carl Zeiss Vario-Tessar Lens + 8GB MEMORY + FLOATY BUNDLE by Sony Date first available at Amazon.com: September 6, 2012 Buy new: $229.84 $198.00 (Visit the Hot New Releases in Camcorders list for authoritative information on this product?s current rank.)

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caner scanner: Travel And Leisure: Destination Tips Article Category ...

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Source: http://sungrebe.seobybookmarks.com/technology/travel-and-leisure-destination-tips-article-category-web-page-313/

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Source: http://caner-scanner.blogspot.com/2012/10/travel-and-leisure-destination-tips.html

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U.S. says no plans for one-on-one meeting with Iran on nuclear issue

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Saturday, October 20, 2012

The Politics Of Climate Change - news - the-press | Stuff.co.nz

The climate change debate is not being helped by the exaggeration both from alarmists and sceptics. So what do scientists and policy-makers actually believe these days? JOHN McCRONE finds out.

Funny how hearing a scientist say that sea levels are going to rise by "only" a metre each century counts as reassuring news these days.

Global warming is alarming stuff. This year all we nervous types have been watching the record melt of the Arctic sea ice.

Suddenly, up north, things seem to be lurching out of control. The summer pack ice cover is disappearing 50 years ahead of schedule. The extent of this took a big dip in 2007, then another even bigger dive this year to drop below half what it used to be in the 1980s.

Some climate researchers fear it marks a planetary tipping point.

In widely reported comments, Cambridge University ocean physicist Peter Wadhams has said the loss of a white reflective polar cap will allow so much extra ocean warming that it is "the equivalent of about 20 years of additional CO2 being added by man".

Wadhams says it also risks the catastrophic release of methane deposits trapped in the Arctic's permafrost and thawing seabed - a blanket of greenhouse gases to send Earth into a death spiral.

We failed to take action over carbon emissions and now it looks to be too late. Wadhams says it is truly time for panic measures - the science fiction remedies of geoengineering, such as burning sulfur in the stratosphere to create a shielding haze, or exploding an asteroid to make a sunshade of space dust.

Also widely reported is Nasa's James Hansen, the "father of global warming science". Again, Hansen is saying everything is going far faster and far further than predicted as the climate feedback systems begin kicking in.

He worries even the now internationally agreed target to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius is enough to result in a "disaster scenario".

The world is already seeing out- of-whack weather extremes, Hansen says. Injecting just a bit of extra heat into the climate system is sending it off in all sorts of odd directions.

And if the Greenland and Antarctic ice masses start to go, Hansen says we could see a swamping five metre sea level rise by the end of the century.

So it is against this backdrop of the most dire warnings that it is a relief to hear a somewhat different story from those right at the heart of the world's climate change science and climate change policy. People like Victoria University's Climate Change Research Institute (CCRI) director David Frame.

Speaking at a global warming session during Christchurch's recent IceFest, Frame says yes, something really is happening with the climate, but the public are hearing only the extreme views - either the alarmists or the deniers - while the science itself sits somewhat forgotten in the middle.

"Regrettably a lot of the public opinion is very distanced from the actual views of the expert community and the papers in the literature.

"It tends to be either complete scepticism, it's not happening at all, or if it is, it's a rather weak effect. Or else it's the alarmist end- of-the-world portrayals. And neither of those really accord with the best evidence."

Frame says climate change is still a relatively new issue - it was barely discussed in the mainstream media before ex- United States vice-president Al Gore's 2006 documentary film, An Inconvenient Truth.

So the public has been forced to take sides on a complex subject and decide for themselves what to believe, and naturally opinions have become polarised. Arguing yes it is, no it is not, the emotion drives people to seek out whatever evidence appears to most dramatically support their own case.

This year, for the alarmists, it has been the Arctic sea ice melt. While in reply, the sceptics can point instead to a record winter sea ice gain down off the Antarctic continent. Both camps are shouting "gotcha" and the resulting confusion is paralysing.

But there is also the middle- ground rational insider's view of climate change, the considered picture of the scale of the problem and the ways it might be tackled.

Frame says the balance of the evidence is that our actions are warming the planet in a dangerous fashion. Yet these changes still look relatively "well-behaved", not switching into some runaway mode.

Likewise, the concern over the international response.

Many worry that the climate change jamborees, such as the 17th round of the United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Durban last year, are producing too little action. Even New Zealand appears to have about given up on its own "world best practice" emissions trading scheme (ETS).

However, Frame says this is judging climate politics against the wrong expectations. People want noble, utopian answers for a problem so severe. Everything else has to be dropped to deal with this one issue.

But the reality is countries are going to act only on the basis of pragmatism and self-interest. The good news, says Frame, is this can also work.

Starting with the science, what are the "take homes" of current understanding? Tim Naish, director of Victoria University's Antarctic Research Centre, a colleague of Frame, attempts to tick them off.

First, says Naish, there is no question that CO2 levels are soaring. Naish is a glaciologist by training and co-leads the Andrill ice drilling project in Antarctica, which is measuring atmospheric carbon levels for the past 20 million years.

Naish says graphs of CO2 show the level holding steady for the 10,000 years since the end of the last ice age, then suddenly hooking skyward about 150 years ago following the Industrial Revolution.

The pace is quickening, says Naish. In just the past 40 years, the concentration of CO2 has shot up from 320 parts per million to nearly 400ppm. And oxygen levels are falling to match, he says, because of course the carbon comes largely from the burning of fossil fuels.

These are definites. And the evidence is also that, historically, CO2 levels are tightly coupled with planetary temperature.

"Our world has been a nice, constant, balmy 14'C on average for the past 10,000 years. Why? It's because the thermostat is the greenhouse gas CO2," says Naish.

He says a sobering fact is the Earth has warmed by only 1'C so far - this is the consensus figure of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). And yet the last time CO2 levels stood at 400ppm was three million years ago when the world was two to three degrees warmer.

Naish pauses a moment to let the implication sink in. Clearly there is a lag in the response and CO2 has been allowed to rise so fast that the greenhouse effect is still catching up. Further warming is already locked in by what we have done.

OK, not so reassuring then. Especially as some are saying unless the brakes go on hard, we are looking at CO2 levels of 1000ppm by 2100.

However, Naish says understanding the timings and the nature of the lags, is important to the actual assessment of the risks. The biggest fears are all about things changing abruptly, suddenly spiralling out of control. But the consensus view is the "steady change" predictions are actually holding up.

Frame says the Arctic sea ice is a good example. The IPCC forecast there is in fact broadly on track. For a while there was less melting than modelled, and recently there has been a spurt of catching up. But overall the outcome remains within the range predicted some time back.

Frame offers a rugby-watcher's metaphor.

"A lot of stuff that ends up in the media is about how things are worse off than we thought, or not really happening. The extent of Arctic sea ice is a story like that this year. But any given year is too short to matter.

"I liken it to panicking every time the Springboks get the ball. Connoisseurs of rugby and climate connoisseurs know it's a long game. Just because you turn the ball over, just because something happens this year, doesn't mean it's a trend."

Naish says the confidence researchers now have in their climate modelling is why he feels he can speak with some certainty about his own speciality of sea level rise.

Naish says the sea has already risen 20 centimetres in the past 100 years - 1'C of warming causing this much thermal expansion. But only one metre of further rise is expected this century.

He shows a chart of New Zealand to illustrate what a one metre rise would mean. Only the tiniest red nibbles come out of the coastline. A problem, but not a terminal one. In a city like Christchurch, it would take six metres before the waves arrived in Cathedral Square.

The real danger is if the ice covering land masses like Greenland and West Antarctica melts. About a quarter of the world's fresh water is held in these kilometre-thick ice sheets, enough to raise sea level by 12m if it all goes.

Naish says even with higher temperatures, it would take centuries for these ice sheets to thaw. So the threat of inundation is not really so imminent. But the flipside to that is we have also likely condemned future generations to a long-continuing problem. Because change lags the warming, even if temperatures were stabilised right now says Naish, the one metre rise would be one metre per century for many centuries to come.

Frame says sea level rise is an example of the value of having a good grasp of what to expect.

Some climate activists believe the public needs the shock horror scenarios - Hansen's five metres of inundation by 2100 - to stir it from its apathy and send out the call for urgent action.

"But this kind of talk is paralysing rather than helpful. All you do when you double the stakes is make people hunker down even more," Frame says.

"I think most scientists who get into this are still fighting the old battle of how to raise awareness about climate change. But look, everybody in the world has heard about the problem. Now, how do we deal with it? That requires quite different kinds of information."

Frame says that after sea level rise, the most obvious effects of global warming will be on the world's ability to produce food and the increasing extremes to be expected of the weather.

This year extreme weather became a suddenly more convincing tale, with new models of how Arctic warming is disrupting the circumpolar jetstream in the northern hemisphere.

Rutgers University's Jennifer Francis says a hotter Arctic is causing the encircling jetstream to slow down and throw off larger sideways wobbles - the snaky meanders, like a river slowed by hitting the plains and known as Rossby waves.

So weather systems are getting stuck in one place over countries for much longer than usual. The sideway meanders are also either drawing down a larger polar blast or drawing up more tropical air.

The result explains the general "weirding" of the northern hemisphere weather - the droughts that shrivelled the corn harvest in the US this year or the wash-out summer in the UK.

So Frame says climate change is being experienced first through these localised disturbances, the bigger dries and explosive flooding events, which are taking things in all sorts of contrary directions. But in the longer term, world agriculture is going to have to adapt to more permanent shifts in rain belts and climate patterns.

Australia is expected to have even less rain in the future. In New Zealand too, the South Island between Kaikoura and Picton, the lower east coast of the North Island, and Northland, are all forecast to become much more drought-prone.

However, Frame says New Zealand as a whole is something of a lifeboat so far as global warming goes. Surrounded by a deep and wind-tossed ocean, change here will lag the rest of the planet.

"For simple physical reasons, it just takes more energy to heat a bucket of water than a bucket of rock. And the warming rate is slowest over the bits that have storminess over the ocean."

So our own prediction is for just a degree of warming by 2040 and 2'C by 2090. Eventually New Zealand will catch up of course says Frame, but its position gives it a little more time to adjust. It is refreshing talking to someone who appears to be operating in a world where the basic climate change arguments are settled.

The parameters of the problem have been agreed, the bands of uncertainty quantified, and now the job is to identify the rational political solutions.

Frame's own career path suggests how far, in just a decade or so, the debate has evolved.

An Invercargill lad, Frame started out as an atmospheric researcher at Canterbury University, finding time also to study moral philosophy before he got a high-flying job as a Treasury think-tanker, moving to Wellington to learn about real-life policy making.

From there, Frame went back into science at Oxford University before in 2011 taking over as director at Victoria's CCRI.

It is a breadth of background experience that positions Frame now to have an influential say in what governments actually do. And he says much of the attraction of coming back to New Zealand is that it is a small, nimble democracy likely to be an early adopter of new ways of thinking.

Frame feels generally optimistic because he views past policy disappointments as just part of the world's learning process. Even if first-pass solutions like the ETS agreements fail to stick, people will move on and discover other approaches that work.

But what strikes him is the extent to which climate change seems still entangled in other agendas - the utopian thinking that says more about where we are coming from than where we need to go.

For instance, he says, there is the way green political philosophy has become so hairshirt anti- growth that it has created a partisan split between left and right.

"Thirty years ago, it wasn't obvious that when environmentalism first became an issue - especially because it came up as an issue in the rich world's middle-classes - that it was going to be politically left-wing."

But Frame says global warming fitted so neatly into beliefs about the need for social control and brakes on exploitation that it got seized upon. The threat was talked up to support a particular world view.

And yet Frame argues it seems a simple truth that economic growth itself has only been a force for the good.

"On average, human beings in modern society live almost twice as long as they did. They are happier. They are well fed. There is much less violence.

"There are a whole bunch of changes that have been hugely beneficial for people. So the only question here really is how can we now decouple future growth from carbon?"

Frame says he finds the politics of climate change are weighed down by a colonial guilt as well. For many of the European countries that once used to run empires, fixing global warming is seen as the rich world's responsibility.

Again, it is about social justice and utopian ideals, says Frame - which is fine up until the point where, in international negotiations, people expect other nations to respond the same way.

But he says it is an objective fact that carbon emission levels in the developed economies have levelled right off and it is the emissions from the emerging ones, like China, Brazil and India, that will soon be causing the bulk of the problem.

"There is a misconception that it is all being done by the industrialised north and the developing world is just a passive victim. But under a big 'burn it all' future, three-quarters of the atmospheric stock of carbon will come from the developing world."

So there is no point trying to found climate policy on notions of what is morally right, historically just, or even "people just being nice to each other", says Frame. It has to be recognised that countries are going to be motivated by self- interest as much as the collective good and learn to work with that.

"The idea of coupling climate to aid and development obligations that arise out of colonial history, really doesn't have a very strong resonance with other countries like the US.

"Americans don't perceive themselves as being a colonial power. Their historical narrative is that they were the destroyer of these big European empires. So if you try to hang your hat on an emotional feeling, you'll get a very different answer from them." Climate policies can be effective only if they are focused on tackling the problem at hand, says Frame. Take the plight of low-lying island nations like Tuvalu and the Maldives.

Even a one metre sea level rise will swamp these small countries, removing them from the map. But is the rest of the world really going to change its ways to save them?

"I saw an estimate where it would cost US$30 trillion to 2030 to get the Earth on a 1.5'C warming trajectory. Well, let's say, ballpark, there's 150 million people living in the bottom two metres above sea level. The spend to achieve that would be US$200,000 per person.

"Now the average statistical value of a life across the world - the amount we normally spend on people to keep them alive - is about US$6000. So we'd be spending some 50 times more on this particular initiative than any other initiative.

"So why would we do this? Why would it be rational?"

At a climate summit, the simple mathematics would rule, says Frame. Which means island nations ought to be going into the talks seeking some kind of other rescue deal.

"I think there would be some will for that, but very often negotiators don't know that is the question they should be asking."

Frame says this cold-eyed assessment of how the players are going to act might sound brutal. However, it is the only way robust policy bargains can be struck across a world with so many different viewpoints and circumstances.

This is why Frame is not too concerned by the apparent failure of the Kyoto Protocol ETS agreements - the attempt to put a world price on carbon by charging countries to pollute.

New Zealand is being much criticised for backing even further away from its own ETS commitments this year. To be effective, the New Zealand scheme would have to cost $20 per tonne of emissions, yet it has been so watered down the price sits at around $1 a tonne.

He says it was too much to expect the world to move in the same direction at the same speed. "Each country is going to have to decide what it can do."

He believes the game has now changed to a more pragmatic approach, where individual nations will do deals that may be wrapped in with trade and aid agreements. "Access to markets could be swapped for climate commitments."

It might be piecemeal, but it will create the economic incentives to play the good global citizen by embracing renewable energy programmes, carbon taxes and other climate-friendly policies. The planet should still get there in the end, Frame says.

"Yes, the ETS has been watered down and that's a shame. But it comes down now to what's good second-best policy? What's fair in an unfair world?"

?

Ice reflects 80 per cent of the sunlight that strikes it back into space, while open ocean absorbs 90 per cent.

In 2012, Arctic sea ice shrank to its smallest recorded extent in recent times, its coverage falling to 3.4 square km.

2007's previous low of 4.2 square km followed an unusual summer of warm southerlies and clear skies. The 2012 melt was without these helpful conditions.

Since the 1980s, the September minimum sea ice extent has been declining by 13 per cent per decade.

Because Arctic sea ice is getting less time to reform each winter, it is thinning rapidly as well.

In Antarctica, sea ice near the Antarctic Peninsula is seeing a decline, but is in fact increasing slightly in other parts.

The Arctic is an ocean surrounded by land which contributes to its warming, while the Antarctic is a continent isolated by encircling wind and ocean currents.

Source: US National Snow and Ice Data Center

- ? Fairfax NZ News

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Source: http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/7842041/The-politics-of-climate-change

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